Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Atlanta Hawks Over 251.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
The rule with these seemingly impossible totals so far this year has been to go over, so I’m following the rules. Both of these teams have had some pretty inconsistent results offensively in recent games, but facing each other should be the cure for that. The Kings and Hawks are both going to want to get out and run, plus fire away from deep. Both defenses struggle with that offensive philosophy, so I see it feeding on itself to pile up points. Games in Atlanta have been some of the highest-scoring in the league, going 10-2 to the over with the highest average plus/minus to the total, so this should be another one.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Maine @ Minnesota -14 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock
Tonight is the final non-conference tune-up for the Gophers, and I’m not missing out on backing the best ATS team in the country. Usually when a team reaches 11-1 ATS, including 10-0 at The Barn, spreads start getting out of control. But I’m not seeing that quite yet, and I think the Gophers can handle this mid-range number against a weaker opponent.
Maine comes into this game looking fairly good on the season, but it’s come against one of the weakest schedules in the country. The Black Bears have faced one opponent inside the top-100 at KenPom, losing by 23 at UCF last week.
I just don’t think they have the offense to keep up with Minnesota, who is now a top-20 team for effective field goal percentage. The Gophers should also dominate the glass in this game as their 26th in total rebound rate compared to Maine at 310th nationally. Minnesota has beaten their non-conference cupcake opponents by an average 25.0 point margin, so this should be another runaway.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) American/UMBC Over 156 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+
This total will be determined by which team sets the pace as they couldn’t be more different. UMBC is second in adjusted tempo, while American is all the way down at 347th nationally. But neither team is going to defend anything, with both ranking in the bottom-15 for adjusted defensive efficiency.
American is especially poor defensively, ranking 349th in opponent effective field goal rate. So if UMBC is able to play at their preferred style, which I think they can as the home team, then the easy buckets are going to pile up. KenPom projects this game at 163 total points, and while there’s some disagreement at other metrics sites, I’ll take the over here between two teams who are completely disinterested in defense.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1873-1675 ATS (+87.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.